It is a wonderful 16 block walk that took me from my hotel past LODO. There are no cars, but unlike the failed "No CAR" pedestrian malls of the 1960's, it is bustling with people. Hybrid buses run up and down the mall constantly. It is intersected by streetcar routes. People are walking, sitting, eating, looking, hanging!
Check out the pictures!
Saturday, June 13, 2009
CNU-Peter Calthorpe: Think Globally-Act Regionally
Peter Calthorpe is one of original founders of the Congress for the New Urbanism. His firm has done major regional plans, as well as urban revitalization projects throughout the United States.
He holds true to the idea that urbanism is the answer to all the problems that confront us as a result of environmental change, not just a few.
But he is very aware that the benefits of urbanism must be proven with "numbers." But, the numbers only work at a regional level. The numbers do not work at a neighborhood level.
That’s why regional scale plans are at the heart of realizing the true benefits of urbanism. Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s) must do regional plans that integrate targeted reductions of vehicle miles traveled (VMT’s) and not just plan for more roads and more traffic.
California MPO’s must do this now. They have the authority to do it. If do not succeed, they do not get highway dollars.
Total energy consumption per household, including household and travel, is much less in urban neighborhoods than in suburban.
The Center for Neighborhood Technology compares Co2 emissions per household versus CO2 per sq mile. If you measure the emissions based on square miles- the result is sprawl. If measured by household, then compact urban form the most efficient.
“The residential market melt down was not just about market failure, it also is a result of building the wrong stuff.”
"AC Nelson wrote an article about future demand for housing. We have so overbuilt large lot single family in the suburbs, we do not need to build another. HBA may come back and do it again, but this is not the market!"
Scott Bernstein in Creating Livable Communities argues that the economies of households are based on transportation costs, and those costs are much higher for people and families in the suburbs. That is why transportation planning and land use planning go hand-in-hand. Focusing solely on vehicle miles traveled and green house gas emissions reductions will not get regions to target levels.
Calthorpe talked about how California’s new Climate Change Law avoids land use issues and focuses on VMT and GHG. "California cannot get to targets with Prius’s and bio fuels."
Every California community now must produce a sustainable community plan. Citizens just voted in high speed rail. The environmentalists have gained up against high-speed rail. They are worried that it will turn the central valley into a cheap bedroom community and will catalyze sprawl. They are right. Without regional planning, high-speed rail can become a catalyst for sprawl.
Jobs and housing balance within a region is very important. Want 5 mile commute sheds; otherwise get major commuting within the region and as metro regions merge between regions. The consequence is increasing separation of workers from employment centers with lower income workers having longer commutes.
"Now more than ever numbers matter. There is a need to quantify the benefits of urbanism. "
He holds true to the idea that urbanism is the answer to all the problems that confront us as a result of environmental change, not just a few.
But he is very aware that the benefits of urbanism must be proven with "numbers." But, the numbers only work at a regional level. The numbers do not work at a neighborhood level.
That’s why regional scale plans are at the heart of realizing the true benefits of urbanism. Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s) must do regional plans that integrate targeted reductions of vehicle miles traveled (VMT’s) and not just plan for more roads and more traffic.
California MPO’s must do this now. They have the authority to do it. If do not succeed, they do not get highway dollars.
“How we spend transportation dollars is the great form-giver of our regions and neighborhoods.”
Total energy consumption per household, including household and travel, is much less in urban neighborhoods than in suburban.
“It’s all about transportation, and transportation is about urban design.”
The Center for Neighborhood Technology compares Co2 emissions per household versus CO2 per sq mile. If you measure the emissions based on square miles- the result is sprawl. If measured by household, then compact urban form the most efficient.
“The residential market melt down was not just about market failure, it also is a result of building the wrong stuff.”
"AC Nelson wrote an article about future demand for housing. We have so overbuilt large lot single family in the suburbs, we do not need to build another. HBA may come back and do it again, but this is not the market!"
Scott Bernstein in Creating Livable Communities argues that the economies of households are based on transportation costs, and those costs are much higher for people and families in the suburbs. That is why transportation planning and land use planning go hand-in-hand. Focusing solely on vehicle miles traveled and green house gas emissions reductions will not get regions to target levels.
Calthorpe talked about how California’s new Climate Change Law avoids land use issues and focuses on VMT and GHG. "California cannot get to targets with Prius’s and bio fuels."
Every California community now must produce a sustainable community plan. Citizens just voted in high speed rail. The environmentalists have gained up against high-speed rail. They are worried that it will turn the central valley into a cheap bedroom community and will catalyze sprawl. They are right. Without regional planning, high-speed rail can become a catalyst for sprawl.
Jobs and housing balance within a region is very important. Want 5 mile commute sheds; otherwise get major commuting within the region and as metro regions merge between regions. The consequence is increasing separation of workers from employment centers with lower income workers having longer commutes.
CNU-Carol Coletta and Smart Cities
Carole Coletta is the Executive Director of CEO for Cities. CEO’s for Cities does some of the most interesting research on the status of cities, their natural advantages, and strategic approaches to growth and development. Check out her speeches and radio show, Smart City. She makes a compelling case for cities every time and every place she appears.
She focused on the natural advantages of cities created by density and mixed-use - producing walkable, urbane environments. In this era of climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, she talked about the new urban, green advantage.
"For first time in history urban-ness is its own reward."
Density and mixed use create walkable environments that result in the natural advantages of cities.
Putting more people in cars and obsessing about traffic flow is bad for the environment, but destroys the natural advantage of the city.
Is traffic flow essential to smart cities? New York City finally realized the answer is "no" and has begun a radical effort to recapture its streets for people. (Read the NYTimes articles about Times Square and car free streets.)
Walking is the critical component of a smart city!
"Our problem is that we keep screwing it up. We keep undermining the city’s natural advantage by making choices that undermine and, at times, destroy density and mixed use thereby destroying walkability."
Yet, we know that all the talented young people every city is seeking to attract place a premium on walkability and a diverse, engaging urban environment. Most prefer to live in core cities and most prefer to live in close proximity to the downtown.
CEO’s for Cities found if each of the top 50 metros could achieve:
She then focused on the green dividend. As fuel prices go up, the value of green dividend increases. She based her estimates on $ .50 per mile as total cost to drive at today’s prices. That is worth $29 billion annually in the top 50 metros for every 1 mpd of vmt reduction. Just keep multiplying out the dividend for every further 1 mpd reduction of vmt.
Metropolitan areas that drive less spend less on transportation. Compact urban form allows people to drive less and spend less of their income on transportation. That means they have more disposable income to spend on housing, entertainment, education or just save.
Walk Score data: Relationship between a property and its walk score and its impact on value. The higher the walk score is; the higher the value of the home.
"Once you see the data that establishes this relationship, it makes no sense for any car dependent development to get approval."
She focused on the natural advantages of cities created by density and mixed-use - producing walkable, urbane environments. In this era of climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, she talked about the new urban, green advantage.
"For first time in history urban-ness is its own reward."
Density and mixed use create walkable environments that result in the natural advantages of cities.
- Variety
- Convenience
- Discovery-exposure to more opportunities
- Opportunity-Access to jobs, education and smart people
Putting more people in cars and obsessing about traffic flow is bad for the environment, but destroys the natural advantage of the city.
Is traffic flow essential to smart cities? New York City finally realized the answer is "no" and has begun a radical effort to recapture its streets for people. (Read the NYTimes articles about Times Square and car free streets.)
Walking is the critical component of a smart city!
"Our problem is that we keep screwing it up. We keep undermining the city’s natural advantage by making choices that undermine and, at times, destroy density and mixed use thereby destroying walkability."
Yet, we know that all the talented young people every city is seeking to attract place a premium on walkability and a diverse, engaging urban environment. Most prefer to live in core cities and most prefer to live in close proximity to the downtown.
CEO’s for Cities found if each of the top 50 metros could achieve:
- An increase of in talented young people living in their city;
- A decrease of 1 mile per day (mpd) in vehicle miles traveled (vmt); and,
- A 1% decrease in poverty.
She then focused on the green dividend. As fuel prices go up, the value of green dividend increases. She based her estimates on $ .50 per mile as total cost to drive at today’s prices. That is worth $29 billion annually in the top 50 metros for every 1 mpd of vmt reduction. Just keep multiplying out the dividend for every further 1 mpd reduction of vmt.
Metropolitan areas that drive less spend less on transportation. Compact urban form allows people to drive less and spend less of their income on transportation. That means they have more disposable income to spend on housing, entertainment, education or just save.
Walk Score data: Relationship between a property and its walk score and its impact on value. The higher the walk score is; the higher the value of the home.
"Once you see the data that establishes this relationship, it makes no sense for any car dependent development to get approval."
Friday, June 12, 2009
CNU-What We're Talking About is a Vision for High Speed Rail in America
This session was devoted to discussing the exciting initiative of President Obama to include high-speed rail in the stimulus and in the federal transportation reauthorization bill. Chris Leinberger, President of LOCUS Responsible Real Estate Developers and Investors, and Howard Learner, Executive Director of the Environmental Law and Policy Center, were the most interesting speakers.
The session began by watching President Obama announce his high-speed rail initiative. Watch it yourself.
Howard Learner, Executive Director of Environmental Law and Policy Center, then spoke:
$8 b for high-speed in stimulus
$1.3 for Amtrak in stimulus
$5 b for next 5 years
The Obama administration is opening up the transportation reauthorization bill to include significant investment in high-speed rail.
Midwest High-Speed Rail Network
Planned for last ten years
Downtown-to-downtown: pulling jobs and people into center cities
Powerful counteraction to sprawl
Very good for pollution reduction
But to work:
Have to modernize train stations
Can and should be community centers.
Can and should be commercial centers.
Cannot be just nice places to transfer
The stations should be magnets to change land use patterns.
They must become destinations in and of themselves.
The trains must be not just fast, but nice, comfortable, and convenient.
Current trains equivalent to a third world country.
Amtrak has been starved for funds.
The trains must be time competitive and less hassle than alternatives.
The experience must be one that people say to themselves they like.
The equation to get people on trains is pricing, convenience, speed, nice and pleasant with stations that are centers and destinations.
The Midwest Rail Network will link midsized cities, not just the major cities. High speed rail “hard wires” mid sized cities into the region.
Next up was Chris Leinberger -The economics and functionality of high-speed rail.
Premise-high speed rail is the most important infrastructure investment in this century. If do not make it now, the US is destined to be the new Russia.
Four points:
1. Differentiate high-speed rail from air system. We are a metropolitan nation that we’ve linked with air. At $100 per barrel of oil, airlines do not work under 500 miles. Two long distance systems are needed: air travel for 500-3000 miles; high-speed rail for distances of 50-500 miles.
2. Must avoid airport problems-the LULU’s. Most of the growth in a region goes to the “favored quarter.” Airports for most part are in the non-favored quarter of a region because the affluent and rich do not want airports over their head. In spite of massive public investment in airports, they have resulted in very little economic development around them-a few warehouses, but little else. Airports are places where airlines park their planes and you park your car. Must learn from mistakes of airports and not make the same ones with rail stations.
3. Number one reason is to move bodies; a close second is to catalyze place development. A key issue of which is connectivity. May have to build new stations and we must avoid the isolation of the stations away from the city centers. Berlin’s Bahnhoffe is an example of a new train station no one -can walk to. You can see it, but can’t get to it. A station must be integrated into the urban fabric. As we become more a more knowledge-based economy with knowledge-based workers, the residual industrial era symbolized by trains is very valued. Like most rivers to which cities turned their backs to in the 19th and early 20th centuries, but then "discovered, trains and train tracks are an actual amenity. If you go to Lodo in Denver, the most expensive condos in Denver are up against the tracks where 40 coal trains per day each 2 ½ miles long run. Being in proximity to residual industrial fabric an attraction. There will be more than one station in a region.
4. Placemaking-need to designate between 100-300 acres around the stations as walkable urban places. Need a special overlay to create the density to allow them. Management of these places created is critical. Must be 24/7 year after year. There should be something equivalent to a Business Improvement District (BID) to manage them. The asset must be managed. The BID team should be involved in the design of the stations.
The session began by watching President Obama announce his high-speed rail initiative. Watch it yourself.
Howard Learner, Executive Director of Environmental Law and Policy Center, then spoke:
$8 b for high-speed in stimulus
$1.3 for Amtrak in stimulus
$5 b for next 5 years
The Obama administration is opening up the transportation reauthorization bill to include significant investment in high-speed rail.
Midwest High-Speed Rail Network
Planned for last ten years
Downtown-to-downtown: pulling jobs and people into center cities
Powerful counteraction to sprawl
Very good for pollution reduction
But to work:
Have to modernize train stations
Can and should be community centers.
Can and should be commercial centers.
Cannot be just nice places to transfer
The stations should be magnets to change land use patterns.
They must become destinations in and of themselves.
The trains must be not just fast, but nice, comfortable, and convenient.
Current trains equivalent to a third world country.
Amtrak has been starved for funds.
The trains must be time competitive and less hassle than alternatives.
The experience must be one that people say to themselves they like.
The equation to get people on trains is pricing, convenience, speed, nice and pleasant with stations that are centers and destinations.
The Midwest Rail Network will link midsized cities, not just the major cities. High speed rail “hard wires” mid sized cities into the region.
Next up was Chris Leinberger -The economics and functionality of high-speed rail.
Premise-high speed rail is the most important infrastructure investment in this century. If do not make it now, the US is destined to be the new Russia.
Four points:
1. Differentiate high-speed rail from air system. We are a metropolitan nation that we’ve linked with air. At $100 per barrel of oil, airlines do not work under 500 miles. Two long distance systems are needed: air travel for 500-3000 miles; high-speed rail for distances of 50-500 miles.
2. Must avoid airport problems-the LULU’s. Most of the growth in a region goes to the “favored quarter.” Airports for most part are in the non-favored quarter of a region because the affluent and rich do not want airports over their head. In spite of massive public investment in airports, they have resulted in very little economic development around them-a few warehouses, but little else. Airports are places where airlines park their planes and you park your car. Must learn from mistakes of airports and not make the same ones with rail stations.
3. Number one reason is to move bodies; a close second is to catalyze place development. A key issue of which is connectivity. May have to build new stations and we must avoid the isolation of the stations away from the city centers. Berlin’s Bahnhoffe is an example of a new train station no one -can walk to. You can see it, but can’t get to it. A station must be integrated into the urban fabric. As we become more a more knowledge-based economy with knowledge-based workers, the residual industrial era symbolized by trains is very valued. Like most rivers to which cities turned their backs to in the 19th and early 20th centuries, but then "discovered, trains and train tracks are an actual amenity. If you go to Lodo in Denver, the most expensive condos in Denver are up against the tracks where 40 coal trains per day each 2 ½ miles long run. Being in proximity to residual industrial fabric an attraction. There will be more than one station in a region.
4. Placemaking-need to designate between 100-300 acres around the stations as walkable urban places. Need a special overlay to create the density to allow them. Management of these places created is critical. Must be 24/7 year after year. There should be something equivalent to a Business Improvement District (BID) to manage them. The asset must be managed. The BID team should be involved in the design of the stations.
CNU-Comprehensive Plan-Installment 3
Nashville has spent the last ten years fundamentally changing its approach to planning from one based on conventional zoning for uses to one that codes for character. Last year, city staff and community and civic leaders went to Nashville to see what that city is doing and what are the results. It is nothing short of amazing. To see some of the work and the projects go to the Nashville Planning Department's web site.
Jennifer Carlat-Nashville Planning DepartmentBuilding Support for Form-Based Comprehensive Plans
Nashville's Community Planning Staff includes a transportation planner and a design studio. The department goes outside for market research and analysis. The staff in Nashville's Planning Department numbers around 18. Their work is among the best in the field.
Premise:
"Any attempt to develop with an emphasis on character and form will always be compromised if the community does not plan for character and form."
Nashville is phasing out land use plans and replacing them with community character plans. The challenge is that the staff must train the community, elected officials, planning commissioners and staff itself to know and recognize character and form. It is a major cultural change!
It has taken ten years of education to produce this major change in Nashville's approach.
Four Basic Tenets
Education and Cultural Change
Basics of Community Planning-What makes the Complete Community?
- Employment and services proximate to housing
- Housing choices
- Transportation choices
- Recreation Choices
Form and Character Matter
There has been an evolution of zoning tools.
Nashville uses an Urban Design Overlay (UDO) to regulate form not use. It can be publicly or privately initiated. It can be for greenfield or in-fill development. It is flexible.
An example of a successful UDO is West End Park. It had RM-20 zoning. They did a UDO. Since the UDO's adoption 21 new buildings have gone up. The UDO showed the area could have higher density as long as there was clear guidance on form and character. The East Nashville Community Plan is another example.
Form and Character Can Vary
Use of the transect methodology as a tool to help understand and categorize the environment encourages diversity of development, not homogeniety. They developed the Nashville/Davidson County Transect. For neighborhoods the transect category determined during the planning process. Existing zoning is a one size fits all approach that ignores form and character. Form based- codes are replacing it.
Community Character Manual-policies will be applied to all plans as updates occur.
Regionalism and Sustainability
Integrating transportation and land use
For neighborhoods with major transportation corridors, the key question to answer is: Are you a drive through or a destination? the built form changes depending on the answer.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
CNU-Comprehensive Planning-Installment 2
I especially like this next part of the session. Gianni is absolutely committed to the idea that active and informed participation by citizens produces better results during the planning process. It requires, however, that they be provided with the tools to do so and that agency planners be willing to engage with citizens for the entire process from idea generation to final deliberation. It also requires citizens to engage for the entire process.
WHAT THE PUBLIC WANTS-People, Pixels and Plans
Gianni Longo
There are two challenges to determining what the public wants. How do you provide the tools so that the public can make informed decisions? And, what are the tools?
The People
Longo starts with the premise that the informed participation by the people of a community is essential to develop Comprehensive Plans that are actually implemented. He very much follows in the philosophical footsteps of Jane Jacobs, the author of the Death and Life of the Great American City and who was Robert Moses' nemesis as he imposed his Uber-Planner approach on New York City.
The Pixels:
People must be able to visualize the reality they want. Ideas must be translated into visual representations that accurately reflect what would be the new reality if people are to understand implications and consequences.
In any project there are many pieces and perceptions that must be integrated. In the past, designers and planners used physical models and snaked cameras through them to understand the feel and sense of scale of a project. These folks understood that neither aerial views of physical models or one-dimensional representations give a true read on the feel of the actual built product.
Now, we can use computers so people can see context and the effects of change. The tools are seductive, but they do help us understand and illustrate proposals, and then make decisions. But, they still require a process framework that helps us understand what public wants based on informed decisions that can be put into a plan.
There should be three stages to the process
- Generative-people give voice to their ideas, hopes, and values
- Analytical -what does that look like and does it work
- Deliberative - The public explicitly says yes this is the vision and we give you permission to develop the plan. Plans that do not have the community's permission, don't get implemented.
Tools
- Generating ideas-Can use google applications to put ideas on real maps. The Environmental Simulation Center is advancing the use of google in public processes. These tools allow the dialogue to link ideas and suggestions with places to produce the desired outcome-understanding what the public values and wants. This understanding is the foundation of any successful process.
- Analytical-Visualization comes into play in this stage. How do the ideas translate? You can use simulation to add buildings, change streets, anticipate the effects of time Understanding the consequences of ideas can now occur in relationship to actual physical appearance of community.
- Deliberative-The simplest tool is key pad technology. In Columbus, OH 1700 people thought about 14 different elements for their plan.Don't get to the deliberative stage without doing the generative and analytical stages. This is a sequence. Attendees at the keypad stage have to have participated all along. The result in Columbus was a $1.6 billion bond initiative that passed with 65% of the vote. It was to implement the vision of their Comprehensive Plan.
Another significant outcome of the use of technology is that it shortens the feedback loop-minutes pass, not months. The result is continuity.
The web should never be used as the sole way to get input. It lacks a paper trail of participation. The process should not be one in which people are anonymous and come in and out of it at will, because people must be continuously be involved.
Technology does not substitute for establishing legitimacy. You do that by truly listening.
Three Outcomes that Reflect Democratic Principles
- Values-Represents what people want
- Vision-Articulation and integration of vision with technical analysis
- Endorsement-Deliberation
Real public participation empowers the planning process
The integration of public involvement and technology
- Puts information at public's fingertips
- Anticipates the future
- Enables informed decisions
- Gives permission to act.
CNU -Comprehensive Planning-Installment 1
It's amazing the people you meet just waiting in line to register! Dee Meeriam a Community Planner with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta. She's here because the CDC recognizes that how we have recently built our neighborhoods as unwalkable, auto-oriented places directly impacts health. It's virtually impossible to combat the childhood obesity epidemic if children cannot walk anywhere, but have to be driven everywhere. CDC is working to support walkable, mixed use communities. Read more at the CDC-Healthy Communities.
Gianni introduced the session. A long-time thought leader among New Urbanists, he pointed out the the convergence of New Urbanism and Comprehensive Planning is inevitable. The Charter of the New Urbanism's 27 principles lay our the elements of place making and their relationship to character and form.
We always have to be careful when discussing comprehensive plans-can mean different things to different people. In this session we are not talking about the "Great Plans," not talking about enabling legislation that oftentimes doom the transformative power of visionary plans, not talking about the often conflicting state enabling legislation.
We are talking about the convergence of New Urbanism, Smart Growth, and Sustainable Development. These three movements bring together the Three P's-People, Place, and Prosperity; a new variation on the Three E's- Economy, Equity, and Environment.
The convergence has resulted in three innovations in comprehensive planning.
Second speaker in the session.
Abby introduced her presentation with an overview.
1. The Demographic and Economic Forces at Work-The purview of the Comprehensive Plan is narrow. It deals with the built environment, but ultimately it is about job, proximity to work and residence, and access. Major shifts are occurring that change the future.
understand all unique employment areas and understand the dynamics of each. Are they growing, shrinking? Location matters to industrial users as much as to retail.
Strategic Economics categorizes industries into three types.
3. Transportation with an economic impact
Transit rich environment cuts household. The Housing and Transportation Affordability Index that is based on US Census Data can calculate this index for every community. Transit rich environments result in significant household savings and result in a significant increase in disposable income. Quality transit has destinations and origins that reflect community and character. In cities that are aggressively expanding transit, such as Denver, they are defining both character and form prior to the investment.
4. Lessons learned
New Urbanism and the Comprehensive Plan
Thursday, June 11, 2009 Session One
Gianni Longo is moderating this session. He is a remarkable planner who has a deep and expansive understanding of participatory planning processes and techniques. Check him and his firm out at ACP.Thursday, June 11, 2009 Session One
Gianni introduced the session. A long-time thought leader among New Urbanists, he pointed out the the convergence of New Urbanism and Comprehensive Planning is inevitable. The Charter of the New Urbanism's 27 principles lay our the elements of place making and their relationship to character and form.
We always have to be careful when discussing comprehensive plans-can mean different things to different people. In this session we are not talking about the "Great Plans," not talking about enabling legislation that oftentimes doom the transformative power of visionary plans, not talking about the often conflicting state enabling legislation.
We are talking about the convergence of New Urbanism, Smart Growth, and Sustainable Development. These three movements bring together the Three P's-People, Place, and Prosperity; a new variation on the Three E's- Economy, Equity, and Environment.
The convergence has resulted in three innovations in comprehensive planning.
- It has evolved from an exercise in land use designation to one that develops and reinforces form and character.
- It utilizes a rigorous approach to analyzing and designing place.
- It deliberately integrates land use and transportation.
- Moving from Land Use to Form and Character-Land use is not the same as character and form! The colors can look the same on the map, but the product is very different (e.g., strip malls vs neighborhood centers) The challenge is that a colorful map does not preserve or produce a sense of place. A comp plan must identify places that need to be enhanced and retrofitted and result in policies that produce the results people want and are place specific.It is now becoming the norm that comprehensive plan mapping identifies the character of a community and is not about colorful land use maps that cordon off areas for uses. The new mapping links policy to outcomes. The comprehensive plan identifies growth opportunity areas-primed for redevelopment effort. This approach will fail if the community's zoning code does not allow it! Two examples of this approach are the Lancaster County Plan and Independence by Charter Homes and DPZ.
- Rigorous approach to analyzing and designing place-New Urbanist approach is based on neighborhoods, corridors, and the transect. It establishes relationships between a place and its reality and allows change.
- Integrate land use and transportation-It is an essential linkage because what makes a great city is the relationship between its transportation "bones" and the built environment. The transportation infrastructure creates and links, and creates the public spaces that are framed by private, public and civic buildings and spaces. The only space in which we can create great places and great communities is the public realm!
Second speaker in the session.
Abby Thorne-Lyman Strategic Economics
Forces that Shape the Plans
"Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development"
Abby introduced her presentation with an overview.
- What are the demographic and economic forces? The future does not look like the past. Historic trend information is increasingly irrelevant because of the massive shifts that are occurring
- How do you evaluate the local economy?
- Bring transportation into the story with an economic perspective.
- Lessons learned from comprehensive planning.
1. The Demographic and Economic Forces at Work-The purview of the Comprehensive Plan is narrow. It deals with the built environment, but ultimately it is about job, proximity to work and residence, and access. Major shifts are occurring that change the future.
- Only 1/3 of households have kids under 18
- Only 24% of households are traditional nuclear families
- By 2023 majority of children will be children of color
- By 2042, majority of population people of color (An example of the impact of projecting the future as the past is it ignores the spending power of residents in urban centers.)
- Households are aging. By 2050 19 million people will be over the age of 85. They will demand a type of new housing that does not now exist and will demand transit
understand all unique employment areas and understand the dynamics of each. Are they growing, shrinking? Location matters to industrial users as much as to retail.
Strategic Economics categorizes industries into three types.
- Driving industries (push regional economy)
- Household Serving industries (retail, personal services)
- Business Serving industries
3. Transportation with an economic impact
Transit rich environment cuts household. The Housing and Transportation Affordability Index that is based on US Census Data can calculate this index for every community. Transit rich environments result in significant household savings and result in a significant increase in disposable income. Quality transit has destinations and origins that reflect community and character. In cities that are aggressively expanding transit, such as Denver, they are defining both character and form prior to the investment.
4. Lessons learned
- Comprehensive planning varies depending on development opportunities. Know the opportunities for change
- Local economies are not local-make sure workers/residents can connect to work-always consider the regional context. The Longitudinal Employment Household (LEHD)data gives every community the ability to understand this relationship.
- Good land use policy should support economic development.
- Plan for economic and demographic diversity
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